The opening weeks of a new Premier League season are always filled with drama, surprise packages, and early-season narratives that capture the imagination of football fans. However, history teaches us that the league table at this incredibly early stage can be highly deceptive.
At this exact juncture last season, Liverpool sat proudly at the summit of the division with a perfect record of five wins from their opening five matches, while Tottenham Hotspur occupied a highly promising third place. Yet, by the time the grueling 38-game campaign concluded, Liverpool had slipped to a fifth-place finish, and Tottenham had plummeted all the way down to 17th. This dramatic shift highlights why the actual standings should not be taken too seriously during the infancy of a campaign.
While any statistical analysis must be approached with caution due to the small sample size of just five games—and the reality that some clubs have faced far more challenging fixtures than others—underlying metrics offer a much clearer, more accurate blueprint of how the rest of the season might unfold.
Among these metrics, Expected Goals (xG) is perhaps the most revealing. By evaluating the number and quality of shots a team takes and faces, xG measures how much a team is genuinely dominating matches. It evaluates the raw performance of a side before finishing ability, goalkeeper heroics, or simple good fortune come into play. Historically, Premier League data proves a simple truth: the more a team dominates the underlying numbers, the more points they will inevitably accumulate in the long run.
To get the most accurate reflection of a team’s organic attacking and defensive capabilities, it is best to exclude penalties from these calculations. Penalty decisions are highly subjective, often influenced by refereeing variance or isolated moments of defensive clumsiness. Excluding them prevents a distorted view of how well a team is actually performing in open play.
When we strip away the penalties and analyze the non-penalty xG data, a fascinating picture of the division begins to emerge. Despite suffering their heaviest defeat in three years last weekend at the hands of Brighton, reigning champions Arsenal remain the most dominant team in the division overall based on non-penalty xG difference.
Right behind them are the current league leaders, Manchester City, whose underlying numbers show they are thoroughly deserving of their place near the top. Meanwhile, there is absolutely nothing lucky about Brentford’s unbeaten start to the campaign; their impressive performances are entirely backed up by stellar underlying data.
For Manchester United, the public perception often oscillates wildly between crisis and celebration. However, the data suggests their actual performance level has been remarkably steady. Despite an underwhelming start in terms of actual points, Erik ten Hag’s side is performing well; only three teams in the entire league boast a higher non-penalty xG difference at this stage. Similarly, both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have put together performances that suggest they are far better than their current positions in the live table would indicate.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle United have produced some of the least impressive underlying performances in the league. Newcastle’s presence in this trio is perhaps the most surprising, given their comfortable position in the top half of the actual table.
While these fanbases have no reason to panic just yet, the data indicates that all three managers have significant work to do to improve their teams’ basic performances. Aston Villa, in particular, will look to their own history for comfort, having successfully overcome a similarly sluggish statistical start last season to eventually secure a magnificent fourth-place finish.
Crucially for the established top-flight sides, the newly promoted teams look fully prepared to fight for their survival. Both Hull and Ipswich have made genuinely solid starts to the campaign, proving that they possess the tactical structure to compete at this level.
Pecked by the Seagulls
When examining attacking metrics across the division, Brighton have established themselves as the most potent force in the league. Under the guidance of Fabian Hurzeler, the Seagulls have generated the highest non-penalty xG in the top flight, followed closely by Manchester City, Brentford, and Manchester United.
In contrast, while Arsenal are widely lauded for their defensive organization, it is highly surprising to find that eight teams have generated a higher non-penalty xG than the champions so far. Liverpool and Chelsea also find themselves languishing in mid-table when it comes to raw chance creation.
Brighton’s attacking dominance is not just about creating chances; they have also been incredibly clinical. Hurzeler’s side has racked up an impressive 15 non-penalty goals from an expected goals figure of just 10.7.
The only team in the division to display even greater ruthlessness in front of goal is their avian cousins, Newcastle United. Remarkably, the Magpies have achieved this despite registering the lowest non-penalty xG in the entire league.
Under head coach Matthias Jaissle, Newcastle have scored double the number of goals a team would historically expect to convert from the quality of chances they have created, netting nine non-penalty goals from a meager 4.5 xG. While Jaissle will be delighted with his players’ sharp finishing, he will undoubtedly be aware that relying on such extreme overperformance is an unsustainable long-term strategy. He will need his side to start creating far more high-quality opportunities as the autumn months roll in.
At the other end of the finishing spectrum, several teams are currently cursing their luck. Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham Hotspur have all endured a frustrating start in front of goal, with each side scoring three goals fewer than they statistically should have based on the chances they generated in their opening five matches. Over the coming weeks, it will be fascinating to see whether these sides are suffering from a fundamental flaw in their finishing technique, or if their fortunes will simply balance out as regression to the mean takes effect.
Same old Arsenal… mostly
While Arsenal’s attacking numbers may raise a few eyebrows, their defensive metrics remain peerless. The champions continue to boast by far the most resilient backline in the division, an achievement that looks even more impressive when you consider they have already navigated a heavy defeat against Brighton.
Elsewhere, managers are beginning to leave their defensive marks on their respective squads. Nottingham Forest head coach Oliver Glasner may have plenty of work ahead of him to get his team firing in the attacking third, but he has already established an incredibly solid defensive foundation. The same can be said for Andoni Iraola at Liverpool, where a disciplined defensive structure has made them incredibly difficult to break down.
In stark contrast, several high-profile clubs have significant defensive rebuilding to do. Crystal Palace, Fulham, and Chelsea have all looked far too vulnerable and open at the back during the opening weeks of the campaign.
Among those struggling defensively is Xabi Alonso’s side. While they have already conceded 12 goals this season, their underlying defensive data suggests they are not quite as disastrous as that double-figure tally implies, indicating a degree of bad luck has compounded their defensive transition.
Meanwhile, Brighton’s brilliant, free-flowing attacking play under Fabian Hurzeler has clearly come at a cost to their defensive stability. The Seagulls’ underlying numbers suggest they have been somewhat fortunate not to have conceded more goals than they have so far.
Conversely, Everton and Leeds have both enjoyed excellent fortune at the back, conceding three goals fewer than expected given the quality of the opportunities they have surrendered to their opponents. Despite this positive variance, both clubs can take heart from the fact that they still rank among the statistically strongest defensive units in the division overall.
With only five games played, it is far too early to draw definitive conclusions about how the Premier League season will conclude. However, these early underlying numbers have pulled back the curtain, offering a fascinating glimpse of the tactical realities and potential trajectories that lie ahead for all 20 clubs.
