The landscape of the British energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, moving away from a centralized model dominated by large-scale power stations toward a more decentralized, localized, and democratic system. At the heart of this shift is community-owned renewable energy, a sector that has long been championed by local activists and environmentalists but is now being recognized as a critical pillar of the national infrastructure. According to the newly released Community Energy Scenarios report from National Grid Electricity Distribution, the potential for this sector is vast. The research suggests that across the operator’s specific regions—encompassing South and Mid Wales, the South West, and the Midlands of England—community-owned renewable energy capacity could soar to as much as 1.5GW by the year 2035. This ambitious figure represents a significant leap from current levels and underscores the pivotal role that local groups could play in achieving the United Kingdom’s broader net-zero ambitions.
The report provides a comprehensive look at the future of localized power, modeling three distinct potential pathways that reflect varying degrees of policy support, financial investment, and regulatory reform. These pathways—Steady Growth, Accelerated Uptake, and Transformational Change—offer a roadmap for how community energy might evolve over the next decade. Currently, the community-owned generation capacity within National Grid Electricity Distribution’s network stands at 265MW, with an additional 60MW already in various stages of development. While these figures are encouraging, they represent only a fraction of the total potential identified in the study. Under the Steady Growth scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends and existing levels of support, capacity is projected to reach approximately 527MW by 2035. However, with more robust policy interventions and a concerted effort to remove systemic barriers, the report suggests that capacity could rise to 795MW under the Accelerated Uptake model, eventually hitting the 1.5GW mark in a Transformational Change scenario.
A central theme of the research is the concept of shared ownership, which the report identifies as a primary engine for growth. Shared ownership refers to an arrangement where commercial renewable energy developers offer a portion of a project’s equity to local community groups. This model allows communities to benefit directly from large-scale energy projects that might otherwise be entirely externally owned. The modelling suggests that shared ownership could be responsible for delivering up to 64% of all new community-owned capacity by 2035. The impact of this model depends heavily on the regulatory framework in place. For instance, the Accelerated Uptake scenario assumes a mandatory 5% offer of shared ownership for new projects. In contrast, the more ambitious Transformational Change scenario assumes a 20% mandatory requirement, coupled with extensive capacity-building support to help local organizations navigate the complexities of energy development.
The geographic scope of the report is particularly significant, covering a diverse range of landscapes and economic conditions across Wales and England. In the South West and the Midlands, as well as throughout Mid and South Wales, the potential for community energy is spread across various technologies, including rooftop and ground-mounted solar photovoltaics, onshore wind, and hydropower. Each of these technologies presents unique opportunities and challenges. Solar energy, particularly on rooftops, offers a way for urban and suburban communities to participate in the transition, while onshore wind and hydropower are often more suited to rural areas with specific geographical features. By diversifying the technological mix, the report suggests that communities can create a more resilient and balanced local energy portfolio.
